Tuesday 22 April 2008

Why the ECB has taken a different route in dealing with the crisis?

Most of world economies are now leaving in the edge, trying to prevent and come up with the solutions to deal with financial markets crisis. How Europe markets are dealing with crisis? Some say they don't, but maybe lack of action is also a strategy? 

European Central Bank stands up strongly keeping 10th month in the row 4% key rate. ECB is staying focused on euro-zone inflation, the inflation is stable and it is equal to 3,5%  annual as well as economic growth slows down moderately. It gives opportunity to policy makers to hold on the stable rates of a next months. By taking that way ECB wants to calm down markets and keep Euro stable. For Europe the US slow down means Euro rise and ECB believes that euro-zone is able to became strong and secure market. Welcoming investors from all over the world and provide for their businesses te best conditions and environment. President of European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet said " we will look carefully at the possibilities of additional measures to calm down markets" and stressed that its priority is to  " prolonged, but temporary commodity-driven inflation spike from seeping into other prices and highlighted unemployment and solid corporate profits". Jean-Claude Trichet in his opening speech at the conference on 'The safety and efficiency of post trading arrangements in Europe on 21st of April "emphasised the importance of the post trading activities in Europe". President of ECB said that Europe is in far more difficult place than US because of the 'cost gap' which US passed 10 years before Europe. Europe doesn't have single market across, within its countries and therefor most of unnecessary costs goes to connections, intermediaries, etc. ECB in my opinion sees this situation as a opportunity to fullfil the Lisbon agenda which claims that " not only must Europe do better, it can do better" the slow down in US monetary system gives EU opportunity to attract foreign and overseas investors to its efficiency and security even in times of crisis.
In general, banks globally tries to approach the crisis from different angels, like Iceland's central bank by putting up key rate by 0,5% to record digit 15,5%. As well as South Africa is keeping bits high, rising by 0,5% key rate to 11,5%.  On the other hand we have UK, next country after US which is falling into slow down, because of their similar economies as well as money-markets. They have to lower down key rates, and inevitably both economies inflation is going up. In case of US we can observe one of the monetary policies (expansionary monetary policy) which contributes to lowering unemployment, recession by decreasing interest rate. In case of Euro-zone we can see the contractionary  policy which is as first tool to approach crisis. This policy results in steps taken by ECB which keeps the key rates stable. Speculators predict that ECB next step can occur in September, this move will consider lowering or rising of key rate, but those facts are unknown. Most probably European Central Bank would rise the key rate to fight with on going inflation, which means that costs of leaving are going to increase. The question is how much? 

Friday 11 April 2008

What did the US government and Federal Reserve decided to do


The US government in co-operation with Federal Reserve since December had pumped US$310 billions into short term loans to recover from credit crisis. On Tuesday Federal Reserve issued another $50 billion to cashed-strapped banks. This step was aimed to keep on going banking system as well as to keep up consumers confidence in it. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hopes that this is going to encourage banks to still lend money to people and avoid panic attack. Fed also encouraged investment banks to borrow directly from Federal Reserve by employing Depression-era provisions. Previously that was a privilege only for commercial banks. The biggest victim of the credit crisis became Bear Stearns the fifth biggest investment bank. Which was forced to sale it self to JP Morgan Chase & Co. One of the other Federal Reserve steps was lowering interest rate for those people on variable interest rates loans, but that move didn't actually change a lot because house prices are still going down. The money that people invested in housing are not going to come back quickly, by selling properties people won't get any profit and even in some case they are going to loose their money. Simultaneously US government started to lend money on lower interest rate and re-negotiating mortgages with banks. Banks have to lower mortgages because people are not able to pay them back, and as mentioned before Bear Stearns was bought by J.Pm Morgan Chase & Co. with $200 billion debt. US government re-write and add extra regulations on the Wall Street, to have bigger control over the stock market. It aims to prevent speculations on the market and intrus, as well as to exclude not reliable companies to enter it. Regulations are going to me more strict. In the first phase of taking out US from shallow recession government is going to cut taxes of middle and working class because government doesn't want people to stop consuming and spending. It would have huge impact on US economy growth.